Nicholasville, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

944
FXUS63 KLMK 291732
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
132 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but
  most of the day will be dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Low stratus that developed over the region is beginning to lift this
morning. Temperatures are steadily warming and on track to reach the
mid to upper 80s. CAPE will increase to 1700-2200 J/kg by this
afternoon, and coupled with a tropical airmass and reaching
convective temps, expecting to see some scattered showers and storms
develop similar to yesterday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Expect to begin the day with at least patchy fog, mainly in areas
that had the heaviest rain on Saturday. Localized dense fog is
possible in such locations, but no significant restrictions to vis
have been noted yet. Will continue to monitor, and likely handle fog
areas with Special Weather Statements, as coverage will likely not
be sufficient to justify an advisory.

Any fog should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise, leaving plenty
of opportunity to reach convective temps this afternoon. Max temp
forecast is very close to persistence, even if it takes a bit longer
to get there. Look for scattered storms to develop, perhaps with a
bit less coverage than Saturday. Not expecting any organized storms
given the lack of shear, but this environment is juicy enough for
frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and perhaps a pulse wind
threat.

Thunderstorms should dissipate quickly around sunset as instability
is lost. For Monday we`ll have an upper shortwave trof moving
through the Upper Midwest, and starting to push a cold front
southeast toward the Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings suggest
moderate instability, and while shear increases slightly it remains
fairly weak. SPC has placed a Marginal risk across much of the area
for Day 2, which on the surface may be a bit generous. That said,
even if convection remains disorganized the instability alone
supports at least a pulse wind threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday - Thursday...

A cold front will push through the region Tuesday, allowing dew
points to drop and conditions to become more comfortable Wed-Thu.
Temperatures will remain near normal in the mid-upper 80s. Sfc high
pressure over the region, will keep conditions dry and skies mostly
sunny.

Independence Day - Next Weekend...

Upper trof lifts out of the northeast CONUS and eastern Canada,
allowing for brief ridging aloft before transitioning to a more
zonal flow again. Temps will trend back above normal, and humidity
will slowly increase. Slight chance for showers or storms on
Independence Day, but most of the day will remain dry. Precip
chances will slowly ramp up next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isolated showers are beginning to develop over the western portion
of the region. These showers will continue to increase in coverage
to widely scattered showers and storms. A storm would be capable of
gusty winds and heavy rain. Diurnal convection will begin to
dissipate with sunset. The first half of the overnight will remain
dry with light southerly winds. The latter half of the night will
feature a cluster of showers and storms moving in and dissipating as
it continues east across the region. This cluster of showers would
help to lower CIGs in the morning. After sunrise, CIGs will begin to
lift and winds will pick up out of the southwest. Another round of
showers and storms (some strong) is expected to develop in the
afternoon on Monday and last through the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRW